London, 07 February 2025 The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has reshaped the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe. It has significantly impacted relationships between Russia and its neighbouring countries, especially the Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These countries, which have long been cautious about Russia's intentions, now face a complicated scenario that demands a thorough reassessment after the war concludes. Examination of the historical context and the influencing factors will help us predict what lies ahead for these nations. Historical Context The Baltic countries share geographical proximity with Russia but have forged unique national identities and political narratives, especially after their experiences during and after Soviet rule. Throughout the 20th century, they faced various forms of Soviet domination, emerging as independent nations with aspirations for greater integration into Western groups like the European Union and NATO. Their historical connections with Russia are intricate, rooted in issues of sovereignty, security, and ethnic composition. For example, approximately 25% of Latvia's population is ethnic Russian, leading to complex social dynamics. The current war has exacerbated these tensions. As a result, Baltic nations are enhancing their defence capabilities while navigating a challenging international landscape. Security Concerns Security is a primary consideration for the Baltic states in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict. The war has highlighted the importance of NATO's collective defence clause, which assures support for any member state under threat. While being NATO members offers some reassurance, the Baltic countries are likely to feel their security is closely linked to broader regional dynamics. In a post-war scenario, the Baltic states may look to bolster their defence further. This could involve increasing military cooperation with NATO allies. For instance, NATO has held regular joint exercises like "Saber Strike," featuring thousands of troops from various countries to ensure preparedness. Strengthening their military posture will be crucial for deterring any potential Russian aggression stemming from perceived instability. Economic Interdependence Economic ties between Russia and the Baltic states also merit attention. Many businesses in the Baltics engage with Russian markets, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. According to the European Commission, around 16% of Estonia's exports went to Russia in 2021. The future of this economic relationship will heavily depend on the political climate after the conflict. Should stability be restored, trade relationships could resume, potentially fostering economic growth. However, the Baltic countries may opt to diversify their trade partnerships. For example, they could establish stronger ties with Scandinavian countries or the European Union to mitigate dependency on Russia and enhance resilience against economic manipulation. Energy Policies Energy dependence remains a critical issue for the Baltics, particularly given Russia's control over significant energy resources. The war in Ukraine has intensified discussions around energy security, leading to increased efforts to find alternative energy sources. For instance, Lithuania has invested in liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, like the Klaipeda LNG terminal, which has reduced reliance on Russian gas by approximately 75%. Post-war, Baltic nations will likely prioritize energy diversification even further. Investments in renewable energy and improved infrastructure connections with European energy markets will be at the forefront of their strategies. For example, the region aims to increase the share of renewable energy in its energy mix to 49% by 2030. Renewable energy landscape with wind turbines in the Baltic Region Societal Perspectives Societal attitudes toward Russia will significantly influence future diplomatic relations. Growing nationalism and scepticism towards Russia can be observed in the Baltic states, driven by historical grievances and current security threats. According to recent surveys, 72% of Lithuanians view Russia as a significant threat. This shift in public perception could sway political decisions domestically and internationally. Changes in societal attitudes after the conflict may push for new diplomatic strategies. A potential rise in leadership favouring conciliatory approaches could alter dynamics. Conversely, sustained fears of Russian aggression may entrench hard-line stances, complicating the pursuit of positive engagement. The Role of the European Union As EU members, the Baltic states benefit from collective European engagement with Russia. The EU's response to the Ukraine conflict has been crucial, demonstrating the power of unity against external threats. The Baltic nations may seek to strengthen their advocacy for a cohesive European policy towards Russia in a post-war world, emphasizing sustainable geopolitical strategies. The EU's economic support and security frameworks will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of relationships between Russia and the Baltic states. For instance, ongoing EU initiatives aimed at bolstering defence cooperation and enhancing economic resilience will provide essential resources for the region . Modern architecture showcasing a Baltic city skyline Navigating Future Relationships The relationship between Russia and the Baltic countries after the Ukraine conflict hinges on multiple factors. These include security concerns, economic ties, energy policies, societal attitudes, and the role of the European Union. Successfully navigating these complexities will require strategic planning by the Baltic states, along with a keen understanding of both regional and global dynamics. Miscalculations could elevate tensions, while proactive engagement may pave the way for a more stable relationship with Russia. As the situation evolves, it is essential for the Baltic nations to balance assertiveness with dialogue. Long-term peace and stability will depend on how they manage these critical relationships, ultimately influencing the future trajectory of this sensitive region in Europe. (Written by The Decision Maker - International Relations editors. AI was used for part of the research).

London, 31 January 2025 In an exciting development for regional financial integration, the central banks of Rwanda and Ghana are joining forces to connect their national payment systems. This bold initiative will simplify transactions, lower costs, and encourage economic growth in both countries, increasing the interest for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) As African nations strive to modernize their financial sectors, this collaboration represents an important step towards building a more cohesive economic framework across the continent. John Rwangombwa - Rwanda Central Bank Governor. Source: WikiZansi Understanding the Initiative The connection of national payment systems between Rwanda and Ghana goes beyond simply enhancing technology. It signals a significant move to bolster trade and investment throughout Africa. By aligning their payment infrastructures, these countries aim to promote intra-Africa commerce, making it easier for businesses and consumers to engage in seamless transactions. For instance, Rwanda's payment platform, PayWay, and Ghana's mobile money service, MoMo, could integrate their systems. This would potentially enable millions of users to send money across borders while benefiting from reduced transaction times. This initiative is vital as many African countries see a rapid rise in digital payments, with a 55% increase in digital transactions from 2019 to 2021 according to the World Bank. The Benefits of Unified Payment Systems One key advantage of connecting national payment systems is the significant reduction in transaction costs. Lowering the fees associated with cross-border payments can save businesses thousands of dollars annually. For small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), operating with narrower profit margins, this change could determine their survival or growth. Moreover, the speed and efficiency of transactions will improve. Businesses would have the ability to complete commercial activities in real time. For example, a Ghanaian retailer could pay a Rwandan supplier instantly, helping them respond quickly to customer demands. This kind of agility can provide a competitive edge, particularly in fast-paced sectors like e-commerce, which is projected to reach $29 billion in Africa by 2022. Strengthening Financial Inclusion Connecting the payment systems could lead to greater financial inclusion for individuals and smaller enterprises. Improved access to payment services would allow more people to engage in the digital economy, unlocking opportunities that were previously unattainable. The integration of these payment systems can also provide a framework for innovative fintech solutions designed for underserved populations. Imagine a vibrant mobile payments system that allows farmers in rural Ghana to receive payments directly on their phones, thus transforming their access to markets. As cash transactions still dominate many regions, initiatives like mobile wallets could potentially increase financial participation by 50% in these communities. Strategic Alignments and Support The partnership between the central banks of Rwanda and Ghana aligns with broader regional initiatives aimed at fostering trade unity in Africa. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2021, lays the groundwork for such collaborative efforts. By harmonizing payment systems, Rwanda and Ghana are not only contributing to AfCFTA goals but also setting a benchmark for others to follow. International institutions, including the African Development Bank, can play a pivotal role in supporting this initiative. By offering technical support and strategic investments, these organizations can help ensure that both countries have the resources needed for effective implementation and management of their payment networks. The Role of Technology Technology is at the heart of this transformative venture. Integrating advanced digital payment platforms will significantly improve the efficiency of transactions. Leveraging innovations like blockchain technology can enhance security and trust, crucial for users engaging in online payments. Investing in necessary infrastructure, such as reliable internet access and mobile connectivity, is also vital for successfully launching unified payment systems. For example, expanding high-speed internet services to areas that currently lack connectivity can dramatically enhance digital banking, increasing participation in the economy. Challenges Ahead While the future looks promising, challenges remain that need careful consideration to ensure the initiative’s success. A critical issue is regulatory harmonization. Each country has different laws and regulations that could complicate the connection process. Establishing a common regulatory framework is essential to overcoming these hurdles. Additionally, there needs to be a strong focus on educating the population about the benefits of integrated payment systems. Raising awareness of these digital solutions is crucial in influencing consumer uptake, particularly in regions where cash transactions are still the norm. A Path Forward The partnership between Rwanda and Ghana’s central banks in linking their national payment systems is a significant move towards a more integrated economic landscape in Africa. This initiative not only drives economic growth but enhances financial inclusion, improving the living standards of many individuals. As the global economy becomes increasingly digital, Rwanda and Ghana's efforts highlight a robust model for other African nations to follow. By creating better financial systems, they are paving the way toward a more unified and equitable economic future. In this rapidly changing financial landscape, the collaboration between nations like Rwanda and Ghana illustrates a powerful truth: when economies connect, futures become intertwined, promising a brighter tomorrow for all. (Written and edited by The Decision Maker. AI was used for part of the research - Angelos Tsigkopoulos contributed to this article)

Uncovering the Future of Investments: Is SaaS the Next Game-Changer for Investors? London, 28 January 2025 In today’s rapidly evolving investment landscape, recognizing opportunities is vital for savvy investors. One area that stands out is Software as a Service (SaaS). This innovative business model is redefining corporate operations and offers exciting investment potential. As businesses increasingly shift to cloud-based solutions, the SaaS sector is on the brink of unprecedented growth. In this report, we will present the reasons why SaaS might become the next big trend for investors. SaaS Technology allows Zoom meetings The Rise of SaaS: A Historical Perspective SaaS first emerged in the early 2000s, with pioneering companies such as Salesforce leading the way. This approach shifted software delivery from traditional installations to subscription services accessible through the internet. Companies no longer needed to invest heavily in hardware or maintain complex software, allowing them to use powerful tools on demand. Since those early days, the SaaS market has seen impressive growth. Recent reports project that global SaaS revenue could surpass $500 billion by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 18% . This surge is driven by factors like the rise of remote work, the demand for scalable solutions, and the widespread adoption of digital transformation strategies across industries. Understanding the SaaS Business Model The SaaS business model provides users with access to cloud-hosted software applications. This method simplifies the user experience by eliminating complicated installations and ensuring automatic updates. Instead of a sizeable upfront investment, users typically pay a monthly or annual fee , which can lead to reliable and predictable revenue for businesses. Key Features of SaaS Subscription-Based Pricing : Customers generally pay regular fees, creating a stable revenue stream for companies. Accessibility : SaaS apps can be accessed from any internet-connected device, offering flexibility that enhances productivity. Automatic Updates : Service providers handle software updates, ensuring customers always have the latest features available without hassle. Scalability : Businesses can easily adjust their SaaS service levels based on current needs, accommodating growth or contraction. The Increasing Demand for SaaS Solutions The demand for SaaS applications has grown significantly, especially as remote work has become more commonplace. Companies recognize that cloud-based tools can boost productivity and streamline their operations. According to a 2022 survey , 83% of companies cited remote collaboration tools as essential for their business continuity during the pandemic. With predictions estimating that 73% of organizations will have all their applications hosted in the cloud by 2025 , this shift represents a critical transformation in how technology is utilized, presenting substantial investment opportunities. The cloud represents the hosting environment for SaaS applications. Investing in the SaaS Sector: Why Now? Investing in SaaS presents a compelling opportunity, particularly for those looking to benefit from emerging trends. Several factors make this sector attractive: High Growth Potential The SaaS market is expected to grow significantly, with companies constantly seeking innovative solutions. A report indicated that 40% of businesses plan to increase their software budgets in 2023, fuelling demand for SaaS offerings. Recurring Revenue Streams SaaS companies benefit from steady revenue thanks to a subscription model. This consistency provides financial stability, reducing risks which can be particularly helpful during economic downturns. Expanding Market Reach SaaS solutions cater to various industries, including healthcare, finance, and education. This broad reach allows companies to attract a diverse customer base, increasing market penetration. Low Barrier to Entry Launching a SaaS product typically demands less capital than traditional software development. This factor encourages new innovations, fostering a vibrant marketplace ripe for investment. Strong Exit Opportunities SaaS companies are often targeted for acquisition by larger firms looking to expand their software capabilities. This trend opens avenues for significant returns for investors. Key Players in the SaaS Space To navigate the SaaS market effectively, investors should recognize key industry leaders: Salesforce A trailblazer in SaaS, Salesforce leads the customer relationship management market. Its wide array of tools helps businesses manage sales, marketing, and customer relationships effectively. Microsoft With its Azure and Microsoft 365 platforms, Microsoft has established itself as a key player in SaaS. Its focus on cloud solutions keeps it at the forefront of industry innovation. Zoom In an era of remote work, Zoom has become synonymous with video conferencing. Its easy-to-use platform is integral for many businesses and educational institutions, underscoring the reliance on SaaS. Risks and Challenges in SaaS Investing While the SaaS sector has numerous advantages, investors should also consider associated risks: Intense Competition The SaaS landscape is highly competitive, with numerous start-ups and established companies vying for customer attention. This saturation can hinder new businesses from gaining traction. Customer Churn Customer retention is critical with a subscription model. High churn rates can quickly erode revenue, making customer satisfaction a top priority. Security Risks As SaaS applications store sensitive information in the cloud, security breaches can pose serious threats. Investors must pay attention to how companies safeguard data. Regulatory Compliance Adherence to regulations, such as GDPR and HIPAA, is vital for SaaS providers, especially those handling sensitive data. Non-compliance can lead to severe penalties. Smart Strategies for SaaS Investment Here are some recommended approaches for investing in SaaS: Perform Thorough Due Diligence Conduct detailed research on potential SaaS ventures. Examine their business models, financial health, and overall market position. Focus on Problem-Solving Solutions Invest in SaaS products that tackle specific business challenges. Solutions that streamline processes or improve efficiency are more likely to succeed. Diversify Your Portfolio Consider investing in different sectors within SaaS. This strategy can help minimize risks associated with reliance on one company or industry. Stay Informed About Industry Trends Regularly update yourself on industry developments. Keeping abreast of trends allows for more informed investment decisions. The Future of SaaS Investment As digital transformation accelerates, the future of SaaS investment appears bright. Innovations in technology, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, could further enhance SaaS offerings, making them even more valuable to businesses. Investors should stay alert for disruptive innovations that may influence the SaaS market. Those who spot and invest in these trends may find themselves ahead of the curve in a blossoming investment landscape. A high-tech data server representing modern cloud infrastructure for SaaS solutions. A New Era for SaaS Investment Investing in SaaS is not just a temporary trend; it offers an exciting opportunity to engage with a growing sector. As businesses continue to adopt cloud-based solutions, the potential for high returns is significant. However, like all investments, a cautious approach is essential. By understanding market dynamics, identifying leading companies, recognizing potential pitfalls, and adhering to best practices, investors can position themselves to thrive in this evolving sector. The question remains—will you grasp the opportunity to explore SaaS investments? (Written and edited by The Decision Maker - Finance and Technology editors in London and Singapore) A futuristic city skyline representing the growth prospects of the SaaS sector.

The Future of EMEA M&A: The Impact of Political Uncertainty, Distressed Deals, and Industrial Advantages in 2025 London, 10 January 2025 The landscape of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) is changing rapidly. The year 2025 is expected to bring unique challenges and exciting opportunities for stakeholders who navigate this complex environment. Political climates, distressed deals, and sectors poised for growth will shape the M&A pipeline, particularly in the UK and Ireland but extending to the wider EMEA region. Getting a grasp on these evolving dynamics is essential for anyone looking to engage in M&A activities. Reaching a deal We shall explore the major factors anticipated to influence EMEA M&A in 2025. Key areas of focus will include the ongoing dominance of the UK and Ireland, the effects of political uncertainty in countries like France, the surge in distressed deals particularly within industrial sectors, and the burgeoning growth in technology like artificial intelligence (AI) and renewable energy. Additionally, we will examine how Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is leveraging its industrial strengths and government policies to attract investors. The Dominance of UK & Ireland in EMEA’s M&A Pipeline The UK and Ireland have long been powerhouses in the EMEA M&A landscape, and this trend is predicted to continue in 2025. Factors contributing to their strong position include mature financial markets, effective legal frameworks, and an active venture capital scene. Skyline of financial district representing thriving M&A activity. In 2022, foreign direct investment into the UK topped £100 billion, reflecting the economy's resilience. Ireland serves as a vital gateway for many tech giants, with companies such as Apple and Google choosing to establish their European headquarters there. This positioning facilitates a higher concentration of M&A activities. As companies seek consolidation and enhanced market presence, the demand for strategic acquisitions in regions like the UK and Ireland remains strong. Industries such as technology and pharmaceuticals are particularly attractive, driving M&A activity. However, stakeholders should remain vigilant about regulatory changes and the evolving political climate, especially as the UK continues to adjust to post-Brexit realities. Political Uncertainty: France and Beyond While the UK and Ireland flourish, political uncertainty in parts of EMEA, particularly France, could complicate M&A endeavours. Changes in government policies and regulations can create unease among investors, leading to more cautious acquisition strategies. France's recent elections have left many investors questioning future economic directions. Concerns surrounding labour laws, tax regulations, and foreign investment may discourage M&A interests. Data from a 2023 survey suggested that nearly 60% of companies cited political instability as a significant factor in their acquisition hesitance within France. Historic city square showcasing political complexity impacting investments. Political unrest in other EMEA countries can also create ripple effects. Nations experiencing leadership transitions or financial instability typically witness decreased deal-making activity as businesses reassess their investment risks. Stakeholders are encouraged to closely monitor these developments. Political turbulence may not only affect potential targets in these nations but could also sway broader investor sentiment across the region. Distressed Deals Rise in I&C The industrial and commodities (I&C) sector is seeing a notable rise in distressed deals, shaping the M&A landscape for 2025. Recent economic fluctuations and global supply chain interruptions have resulted in increased distress for various firms. Savvy investors can seize opportunities to purchase undervalued assets. For example, the manufacturing sector has reported a 30% increase in companies willing to sell divisions or subsidiaries to stabilize finances. This approach allows struggling companies to streamline operations while presenting lucrative opportunities for investors. Abandoned industrial machinery symbolizing opportunities in distressed deals. As 2025 unfolds, interest in distressed asset acquisitions is likely to grow. Companies looking to restructure could attract investors searching for strategic fits at appealing valuations. While these deals do present opportunities, they come with risks. Investors need to conduct rigorous due diligence to evaluate recovery potential and the overall viability of such acquisitions. AI and Renewables: Fuelling Growth Amid the global shift towards sustainability and innovation, sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and renewable energy stand out as future M&A hot spots in 2025. Driven by the urgent need for clean energy, companies are pursuing acquisitions that will bolster technological capabilities and expand market reach. Investment into the AI sector has surged, with global spending projected to exceed $500 billion by 2025. Companies that can integrate AI into their sectors—whether manufacturing, healthcare, or logistics—are likely to innovate and enhance efficiency. Niche sectors such as machine learning are gaining traction, with over 40% of businesses planning to incorporate AI technologies into their operations by the end of 2025. This increasing adoption creates fertile ground for M&A activity. The transition to renewable energy sources, like solar and wind, is accelerating due to regulatory support and changing consumer preferences. Companies focused on these sustainable practices are anticipated to attract M&A interest as organizations strive to improve their environmental impact. CEE’s Industrial Edge and Proactive Policies Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is emerging as an attractive investment hub, thanks to its industrial advantages and forward-thinking government initiatives. Countries like Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic are enhancing their business environments, making them appealing destinations for M&A. These nations possess a solid manufacturing base and a skilled workforce. For instance, Poland alone has seen a 50% increase in foreign direct investment since 2020, underscoring its strength in attracting international interest. Furthermore, reforms aimed at fostering investment, coupled with initiatives for digital transformation, enhance CEE's investment appeal. Streamlined regulations, tax incentives, and infrastructure improvements are all part of the package that makes CEE an enticing option for M&A activities. As companies look to diversify their geographic presence, CEE's established industrial capabilities will likely play a key role in drawing M&A interest from both local and global corporations. Navigating the Evolving M&A Landscape The M&A landscape in EMEA for 2025 is set to be influenced by a combination of various factors, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The UK and Ireland will likely continue to lead the way, but political uncertainty in countries like France serves as a reminder of how crucial stability is for fostering investor confidence. With distressed deals on the rise in industrial sectors, perceptive investors may discover promising avenues. Meanwhile, AI and renewable energy sectors are well-positioned for growth due to increasing demand and innovation. Finally, CEE's proactive policies and industrial strengths create a welcoming environment for M&A, illustrating the importance of flexibility and foresight in this evolving market. Embracing these insights will empower stakeholders to successfully navigate complexities and capitalize on emerging trends that are set to shape the future of EMEA’s M&A landscape. (Written and edited by The Decision Maker - Finance editors. Angelos Tsigkopoulos contributed to this article. AI was used for part of the research)

The Geopolitics Effect on Banking. By Angelos Tsigkopoulos Founder & CEO, Diorasis Group Publisher, The Decision Maker magazine   Keynote Speaker at The International Negotiations Conference, NegotiCON 2025 Publisher's note I remember my banking times with Citi International Personal Bank (IPB), in London, Canary Wharf, fourteen years ago in 2011, every time that I have to reiterate that Banking is more than just a financial system; it is a complex web interwoven with geopolitical influences and strategies. I used to educate my investors rather than just selling them a financial product, unlike those bankers who were responsible for the subprime mortgage market that brought Lehman Brothers down and produced the global economic crisis in 2008, by selling mortgages to customers who did not meet the criteria to get the amount of the mortgage they were given. I always believed that a fully-informed investor contributes to a healthy global banking system. My favourite opening line during my discussions with my investors was, " as countries vie for economic power and stability, the banking sector plays a pivotal role in shaping international relations, and vice-versa. Actually, historically speaking, it is rather true to say that International Relations and Political developments, affect global markets at a point where you can earn enough today and see you driving a Ferrari but send you driving a bicycle the very next day". I still remember my argument with the Citi analysts when they produced a paper in July 26th 2012, being short on the Euro, while the announcement of Mario Draghi, the then President of the ECB, about the intentions of the ECB about the future of the Eurozone, was still pending. When Mario Draghi stated, "ECB will do whatever it takes to save the Euro" , the Euro gained 1,03% against the US Dollar, almost immediately and that is a perfect example of how political developments can affect the financial markets. In this light, we shall explore the intricate geopolitics of banking, examining how political tensions affect financial institutions, global markets, and the economies of nations. Canary Wharf, London The Intersection of Banking and Geopolitics The connection between geopolitics and banking is a dynamic and intricate relationship influenced by trade agreements, sanctions, foreign investments, and regulatory frameworks. Banking acts as a tool for nations to project power and influence in the global arena. Countries with strong banking sectors can significantly impact the global financial system. The United States, for instance, benefits from the U.S. dollar being the world’s primary reserve currency. This status gives the American banking system a unique influence, enabling the U.S. to dictate terms in international trade, affecting countries' economic policies around the globe. In fact, about 60% of all foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S. dollars, highlighting its dominance. A city skyline representing the influence of major banking institutions. Given these connections, it's clear that banking transcends finance. It is deeply linked to national strategies and policies. Shifts in banking can have significant geopolitical ramifications, impacting bilateral relations and international collaboration. The Role of Central Banks in Geopolitical Strategy Central banks are central figures within a country's banking structure and are influential players in the geopolitical landscape. Their monetary policies can shape domestic economies and global markets alike. In times of economic crisis, central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the U.S. or the European Central Bank in Europe, often implement monetary policies that can spark international effects. For example, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75% in 2022, it led to a significant strengthening of the dollar, ultimately affecting trade balances and investment dynamics for countries relying on exports. An iconic central bank building symbolizing financial authority. The implications of central bank policies are substantial. Loose monetary policies might result in capital flowing into emerging markets, boosting investment and development. In contrast, tight policies could hinder countries dependent on outside investments, threatening their economic stability. Sanctions and Their Impact on Banking Sanctions serve as a powerful tool in international relations and often focus on national banking sectors. Economic sanctions can severely disrupt a nation's financial operations and limit its participation in global markets. For instance, sanctions against Iran have significantly restricted its banking operations, limiting trade opportunities and forcing the country to seek alternative financial pathways. A study revealed that these sanctions reduced Iran's oil exports by over 90% in 2019, which had far-reaching consequences not only for Iran but also for countries that traditionally traded with it. The consequences of sanctions can create uncertainty in global markets. They affect investment decisions and economic forecasts. Some countries, sensing vulnerability, may develop parallel banking systems to navigate around established international financial rules. This trend indicates adaptability in the face of geopolitical challenges. A financial district representing the complexity of global banking. Emerging Markets and the Geopolitics of Banking As established powers grapple with modern geopolitical challenges, emerging markets like China and India are gaining prominence in the banking realm. These nations are not just expanding their financial systems; they are also actively shaping the global economy. China's Belt and Road Initiative exemplifies how geopolitics aligns with banking ambitions. By financing infrastructure projects across Asia and beyond, China fosters economic development while establishing a financial network that enhances its influence. In fact, Chinese banks lent over $60 billion in infrastructure financing in 2021 alone. This shift presents both risks and opportunities for established banking powers. Emerging markets provide substantial investment potential, yet their rapid rise challenges existing financial norms. The competition between these new banking players and traditional institutions creates a fluid landscape where power and financial control are keenly contested. The Future of Banking in a Geopolitical Context The banking landscape will likely continue to evolve under the influence of geopolitical factors. The rise of digital currencies presents both possibilities and challenges for traditional banking systems. Around the globe, governments are examining the implications of cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as potential economic tools. A report by the Bank for International Settlements indicated that 86% of central banks are exploring CBDCs. These innovations could disrupt traditional banking structures and redefine national and international financial relations. Additionally, the tension between major powers, such as the U.S. and China, will persist and influence global banking strategies. Financial institutions must remain agile to keep up with these shifting dynamics to maintain their competitiveness and resilience. My Final Thoughts The geopolitics of banking is a complex, ever-changing subject that warrants careful attention. Understanding the relationship between banking and international relations allows us to see how financial institutions shape and are shaped by geopolitical forces. As we move forward, having adaptable strategies and innovative approaches in banking will be crucial. The interplay of politics and finance will continue to unfold in ways that present both challenges and opportunities on the global stage. In this evolving context, banking will play a vital role in influencing not only economies but also societies and governance worldwide. Grasping this relationship is essential for anyone interested in the future of international relations and global finance.

Unveiling the Dynamics of Energy Diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Closer Look at Strategic Negotiations By Angelos Tsigkopoulos Founder & CEO, Diorasis Group Publisher, The Decision Maker magazine   Keynote Speaker at The International Negotiations Conference, NegotiCON 2025 Energy diplomacy is a complex web of negotiations and strategic partnerships that shape the geopolitical landscape of the Eastern Mediterranean region. As countries compete for control over valuable energy resources, diplomatic manoeuvres play a crucial role in determining the balance of power and influence in this critical area. Let's delve deeper into the intricacies of energy diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean and explore the key players, interests, and challenges involved. The Geopolitical Chessboard Image Source: Unsplash At the heart of energy diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean lies the struggle for resource-rich territories and maritime boundaries. Countries in the region, such as Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, Israel, and Egypt, are engaged in a delicate dance of diplomacy to secure their claims over offshore oil and gas reserves. The discovery of significant energy deposits has heightened competition and raised the stakes for all parties involved. Strategic Alliances and Rivalries Image Source: Unsplash Through energy diplomacy, countries in the Eastern Mediterranean are forging strategic alliances to advance their interests and consolidate power in the region. These alliances are often driven by shared economic goals, security concerns, and a desire to counterbalance the influence of rival states. At the same time, historical disputes and unresolved conflicts continue to fuel rivalries that shape the dynamics of energy diplomacy. Navigating Complex Territorial Claims Image Source: Unsplash One of the key challenges in energy diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean is navigating the complex web of overlapping territorial claims and maritime boundaries. The delineation of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the rights to exploit offshore resources have been sources of tension and contention among neighbouring countries. Resolving these disputes requires delicate negotiations and a nuanced understanding of international law. Towards a Sustainable Energy Future As countries in the Eastern Mediterranean seek to harness their energy resources for economic development and regional stability, energy diplomacy will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the region. By fostering dialogue, cooperation, and mutual understanding, stakeholders can work towards sustainable energy governance that benefits all parties involved. Energy diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean is a dynamic and multifaceted endeavour that requires skilful negotiation, strategic foresight, and a commitment to dialogue. As the region grapples with competing interests and geopolitical rivalries, the need for effective diplomacy has never been greater.

Uncovering the Unseen: Predicting the Energy Landscape in 2025 By Angelos Tsigkopoulos Founder & CEO, Diorasis Group Publisher, The Decision Maker magazine   Keynote Speaker at The International Negotiations Conference, NegotiCON 2025 London, 1 November 2024 As we move toward a rapidly changing world, the energy sector stands at the forefront of an exciting transformation. By 2025, energy production, consumption, and management will look significantly different than today. The global shift towards sustainability, advancements in technology, and evolving socio-economic factors will all play vital roles. Despite the new forms of energy and terminology that comes with it as a result, I believe the energy sector will remain suitable for the traditional risk averse investor who prioritises capital preservation. What trends are likely to shape the energy landscape in the near future though? The Rise of Renewable Energy One of the most important trends expected to dominate the energy sector by 2025 is the rise of renewable energy sources. Solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal energy are becoming mainstream, driven by government policies, technological improvements, and increased consumer awareness. For example, the cost of solar energy has dropped by over 82% since 2010, making it one of the most affordable energy sources. Innovations like floating solar panels and advanced wind turbine designs help maximize energy generation. Countries worldwide are setting ambitious renewable energy targets. The European Union aims for 40% of its energy to come from renewable sources by 2030, indicating a significant push towards clean energy. A vast solar farm demonstrating the shift to renewable energy sources. This transition not only meets rising energy demands but also aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency, the renewable energy sector could help reduce global CO2 emissions by 70% by 2050. By 2025, countries heavily reliant on fossil fuels will likely shift significantly towards cleaner alternatives, paving the way for a more sustainable energy framework. The Future of Energy Storage As renewable energy grows, so does the need for efficient energy storage. The unpredictable nature of solar and wind power means that effective storage solutions are essential for maintaining grid reliability. By 2025, breakthroughs in battery technologies, particularly lithium-ion and solid-state batteries, will drive the widespread adoption of energy storage systems. For example, the global market for energy storage is expected to reach $546 billion by 2035, indicating how crucial these systems will be to supporting electric vehicles (EVs) and home energy setups. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) will be key in optimizing energy storage. Improved energy management systems will allow users to maximize renewable energy usage while minimizing costs, allowing households and businesses to save up to 30% on electricity bills through better energy management. Electrification of Everything The electrification movement is set to reshape how we consume energy across various sectors. By 2025, the growth in electric vehicles, electrified public transport, and energy-efficient building retrofits will be notable. In the transportation sector, the number of electric vehicles is projected to reach 145 million globally by 2030. As battery technology advances and charging infrastructure becomes more widespread, cities will adapt to this shift, leading to more sustainable energy use. Electric vehicles reflect the future transition to an electrified transport system. Alongside vehicles, buildings will embrace smart technology to enhance energy efficiency. Smart grids and IoT technologies will enable homes and businesses to monitor energy usage more effectively. For example, smart thermostats can lead to energy savings of 10%–15%, further shrinking carbon footprints. The Hydrogen Economy Another significant trend in the energy landscape is the growth of the hydrogen economy. Green hydrogen, produced from renewable energy sources, is expected to become an essential energy carrier by 2025. Countries investing in hydrogen research and infrastructure will pioneer initiatives that harness hydrogen's versatility. For instance, Japan and Germany are leading efforts to develop hydrogen as a clean energy alternative for hard-to-electrify sectors, such as steel manufacturing and heavy-duty transport. Additionally, hydrogen functions as an energy storage solution, helping to balance supply and demand in grids dominated by renewables. By 2025, expect an increase in hydrogen projects aimed at optimizing production and scaling operations, potentially creating over 30 million jobs in the clean hydrogen sector by 2030. The Role of Smart Grids The future of energy in 2025 will also feature smart grids that leverage advanced technologies to enhance energy distribution reliability and efficiency. These grids allow two-way communication between consumers and utilities, promoting real-time energy management. Smart meters, integrated technologies, and data analytics will enable utilities to monitor energy consumption patterns more accurately. This approach helps tailor solutions for consumers, incentivizing them to manage their energy usage more effectively. Moreover, smart grids will enhance the integration of decentralized energy resources, such as rooftop solar systems and community solar projects. By 2025, smart grids could lead to an estimated 30% reduction in energy bills for households, showcasing their potential to reshape energy consumption. The integration of smart grid technologies enhances energy efficiency. Looking Ahead As we look towards 2025, the energy landscape is set for substantial change. The trends of renewable energy growth, advances in energy storage, widespread electrification, the emergence of the hydrogen economy, and the rise of smart grids will redefine our approach to energy production and consumption. By understanding these dynamics, individuals and businesses can prepare for the future. Investing in sustainable practices and embracing new technologies will help us move towards a cleaner, more resilient energy future that benefits everyone. Navigating this unseen territory offers a bright outlook on innovation and sustainability, requiring participation from all stakeholders. The changes ahead are not merely advancements—they are critical steps toward building a responsible and sustainable energy ecosystem for generations to come. I will close this analysis as I started it; despite the new forms of energy and terminology that comes with it as a result, I believe the energy sector will remain suitable for the traditional risk averse investor who prioritises capital preservation.

How Will The European Green Bond Standard Impact the EU's Financial Market? By Angelos Tsigkopoulos Founder & CEO, Diorasis Group Publisher, The Decision Maker magazine   Keynote Speaker at The International Negotiations Conference, NegotiCON 2025 In an era where environmental concerns are reaching a boiling point, the EU is stepping up to create a robust framework for sustainable finance. The launch of the European Green Bond Standard is a game-changer for green finance in Europe. We shall attempt to analyse the implications of this standard and examines whether the landscape for green bonds is shifting within the EU. Close-up view of financial reading illustrating green projects Understanding Green Bonds Green bonds are fixed-income securities intended solely for financing projects that contribute positively to the environment. This includes investments in renewable energy, energy-efficient buildings, sustainable water management, and even clean transportation. The green bond market has grown substantially, with issuance increasing from just $3 billion in 2012 to over $270 billion in 2020, reflecting a rising demand for investment in sustainable development. This demand is fueled by both consumer awareness and institutional pressures to pursue responsible investment strategies. As the EU intensifies its commitment to sustainability, it's evident that regulated and credible green financing options are crucial. The European Green Bond Standard is set to build investor confidence by ensuring that the funds raised are allocated to genuinely beneficial environmental projects. The Objectives of the European Green Bond Standard The European Green Bond Standard has several key goals: Transparency : Investors have long faced confusion over what qualifies as a 'green' project. The standard aims to specify clear criteria for eligible projects, making it easier for investors to trust their funding decisions. Integrity : To combat 'greenwashing'—where organizations mislead regarding their environmental practices—the EU is establishing rigorous standards for green bonds. Market Growth : By fostering greater trust and clarity, the EU hopes to stimulate significant growth in the green bond market, directing more funds toward sustainable initiatives. Alignment with EU Taxonomy : This standard aligns with the EU Taxonomy Regulations, which outline environmentally sustainable economic activities. This means projects financed by green bonds will effectively contribute to the EU's climate and environmental goals. High angle view of a sustainable urban development project Immediate Impacts on the Financial Market The introduction of the European Green Bond Standard will impact the EU financial market in several crucial ways. Increased Investment Opportunities With a clearer set of guidelines, more global investors are likely to be attracted to finance sustainable projects in the EU. For instance, a recent study revealed that 90% of large institutional investors plan to increase their allocation to sustainable investments over the next five years. Greater Assurance for Investors The stringent standards set by the EU will assure investors that their funds are backing legitimate green initiatives. This reassurance might motivate institutions that have previously been cautious to enter the green bond market. Enhanced Market Liquidity Standardization will likely improve liquidity in the green bond market. An increase in compliant bonds may facilitate a more active trading environment, offering investors better chances to buy and sell these securities. According to analysts, liquidity in green bond markets could rise by nearly 20% due to the implementation of these standards. The Role of Regulation Regulation is vital for the success of the European Green Bond Standard. It ensures compliance and supports transparency, helping to maintain the integrity of the green bond market. Such regulations are not only beneficial for the EU but are also crucial for aligning European green bonds with global standards, paving the way for international collaboration in climate finance. When the Standard aligns with international frameworks, it enhances credibility and increases investor confidence. This unity across countries could simplify the investment landscape for both institutional and private investors. Eye-level view of renewable energy wind turbines against a lush landscape Looking Ahead As the EU moves forward with the European Green Bond Standard, it is crucial to monitor its progress and make adjustments as necessary. Collaboration among stakeholders—including governments, investors, and project developers—is essential for continually evaluating standards and maintaining the integrity of green finance. Challenges Despite the enthusiasm, challenges remain. The diverse nature of projects makes standardization complex. A flexible approach to assessing projects will likely be needed to accommodate various types of green initiatives. Additionally, capacity building among smaller project issuers is vital. Resources must be made available to educate and support entities that might lack experience with green financing options. My Final Thoughts The European Green Bond Standard is a significant advancement in creating a strong green finance environment within the EU. By focusing on transparency, integrity, and market growth, it lays a solid foundation with the potential to transform the financial market. As interest in green bonds continues to rise, investors are increasingly recognising their ability to drive meaningful change. The future of green finance appears bright, provided all stakeholders remain willing to collaborate and adapt to evolving standards. In supporting authentic sustainable projects, the European Green Bond Standard can reshape not only the financial landscape but also play a key role in the global fight against climate change. As the EU leads the way in green finance, the ripple effects can lead to a sustainable future for all.

South Korea Consumer Confidence Falls Amid Political Uncertainty London, 23 December 2024 This December, the South Korean Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) fell from 100.7 in November to 88.4, its lowest level in more than two years. Following President Yoon Suk Yeol's controversial proclamation of martial law on December 3 and subsequent impeachment on December 14, this decline underscores the mounting economic concerns fuelled by political uncertainty. Significant economic effects of the political unrest include the benchmark Kospi index's steep drop and the South Korean won's 15-year low. Expectations for consumer expenditure also significantly declined, as sentiment towards durable items, dining, and travel declined. In order to strengthen the economy and sustain growth at this difficult time, Governor Rhee Chang-yong emphasised the significance of fiscal measures. (Written and edited by The Decision Maker, Finance editors)

Honda And Nissan Merger to Create World’s Third-Largest Automaker London, 23 December 2024    As the industry experiences significant changes in its shift away from fossil fuels, Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan have announced plans to work towards a combination that would create the third-largest carmaker by sales in the world. The two firms announced Monday that they had inked a memorandum of understanding and that Mitsubishi Motors Corp., a smaller member of the Nissan alliance, had also consented to participate in the integration negotiations.   As newcomers like China's BYD and EV market leader Tesla eat up market share, Japanese automakers are attempting to reduce expenses and make up for lost time after falling behind their major competitors in the electric vehicle space. Honda and Nissan will try to consolidate their activities under a joint holding company, according to Toshihiro Mibe, president of Honda. The new management will be led by Honda, who will uphold each company's values and brands. According to him, they want to finalise the deal and list the holding company on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by August 2026, with a formal merger agreement expected by June.   According to Mibe, the formal discussions are just getting started and no monetary value was provided. He stated that there are "points that need to be studied and discussed." "To be honest, there is a chance that this won't be implemented." Based on the market capitalisation of all three automakers, a combination might create a giant valued at over $50 billion. With their combined size, Honda, Nissan, and Mitsubishi would be able to take on Toyota Motor Corp. and Volkswagen AG of Germany. Toyota has technical alliances with Subaru Corp. and Mazda Motor Corp. of Japan. (Written and edited by The Decision Maker - Finance editors)

US Stock Futures Stabilised on Thursday After a Sharp Selloff London, 19 December 2024 Following a steep selloff on Wall Street the day before, which was brought on by the Federal Reserve's updated outlook for interest rates in 2025, US stock futures stabilised on Thursday. The Dow fell 1,123.03 points, or 2.58%, during Wednesday's regular trading session, continuing its 10-day losing run, which is the longest since 1974. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 both had significant declines, dropping 2.95% and 3.56%, respectively. The Fed's decision to carry out a widely anticipated quarter-point rate decrease and the announcement that the central bank intends to reduce rates less frequently than previously thought caused the decline. In September, the Fed predicted four rate decreases in 2025; now, it only anticipates two. In addition, the Fed increased projections for core inflation and economic growth while decreasing its forecast for the unemployment rate, which caused Treasury yields to rise. Additionally, overly optimistic mood and stretched positions made the market susceptible to a selloff. (Source: Trading Economics )

Navigating Fiscal Policy Turbulence: Uncovering Investment Opportunities in Uncertain Times. In today's world, economic volatility has become a common theme, making it essential for investors to stay informed. Governments around the globe frequently adjust fiscal policies, and the outcomes can either stabilize markets or heighten uncertainty. Grasping the connection between these policies and investment opportunities is key for anyone looking to thrive in turbulent times. This post explores the dual nature of fiscal policies, shedding light on both the risks and the potential investment avenues available. Understanding Fiscal Policies Fiscal policy encompasses how governments manage spending and taxation to influence economic activity. Effective fiscal policy can spur economic growth, stabilize markets, and enhance consumer confidence. However, when fiscal measures are poorly managed or aimed at addressing immediate crises, they might exacerbate market instability. Investors need to identify the two main types of fiscal policies. Expansionary policies, which involve increased government spending and tax cuts, are designed to stimulate growth. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government introduced measures amounting to nearly $6 trillion to foster economic recovery. On the flip side, contractionary policies aim to reduce spending and increase taxes to combat inflation. Each fiscal approach significantly impacts various investment sectors, which investors should monitor to adjust their strategies accordingly. The Current Economic Climate Economic conditions change based on factors such as geopolitical issues and health crises. Recent examples, like the COVID-19 pandemic, have spotlighted how susceptible global markets can be to sudden shifts, creating a challenging atmosphere for investors. Yet, amidst this turmoil, unique opportunities also arise for those who are observant. Historically, downturns can give rise to promising investments. For instance, during economic slowdowns, sectors such as healthcare and technology often see increased demand. According to a 2022 report, telehealth providers witnessed a 38% growth in usage during the pandemic. Investors who look closely can identify emerging sectors that flourish under specific fiscal policies, allowing them to discover profitable investment options. Urban landscape showcasing opportunities in investment sectors during turbulent times Identifying Investment Opportunities The true challenge lies in recognizing both the risks and opportunities that fiscal policies present. As these policies shift in response to economic challenges, certain sectors may become more attractive for investment. A prime example is renewable energy, which has boomed as many governments commit to climate change initiatives. In 2021, global investments in renewable energy reached $300 billion, significantly influenced by policy shifts favouring green investments. Technology firms specializing in remote work solutions also demonstrate resilience during economic turbulence. Companies like Zoom and Microsoft saw their stock prices rise by 300% and 60%, respectively, between early 2020 and late 2021 due to increased demand for digital communication tools. This intersection of fiscal policy and emerging technologies offers substantial investment potential for those who actively seek it. Market Reactions to Fiscal Policies Investors must pay attention to market reactions following fiscal policy announcements. For instance, expansionary policies often lead to price increases in stocks associated with infrastructure and construction. When the U.S. government announced a $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021, shares of construction firms surged, illustrating how market sentiment aligns with government actions. Conversely, contractionary policies can trigger sell-offs in growth sectors. For instance, when interest rates are raised in response to inflation, stocks in high-growth sectors like technology often face declines. Recognizing these patterns allows investors to identify excellent buying opportunities during market dips. City centre representing economic activity influenced by fiscal policies Mitigating Risks While exploring investment opportunities amidst fiscal policy shifts is essential, so is managing risk. Diversifying portfolios enables investors to balance exposure to both high-growth and stable assets. During unpredictable times, having a mixture of reliable stocks and more speculative options can protect against losses. Additionally, keeping a close watch on economic indicators—like inflation rates, unemployment figures, and consumer spending—enhances decision-making. With fiscal policies constantly evolving, staying informed equips investors to act promptly as new opportunities emerge. Key Takeaways for Investors The relationship between fiscal policies and investment opportunities requires careful navigation. By understanding how these policies work, recognizing market reactions, and implementing risk mitigation strategies, investors can uncover potential opportunities even amidst uncertainty. Adapting to changes in the economic landscape is vital. By remaining alert and informed, investors position themselves to make the most of the investment opportunities that arise in turbulent times. Stock market graph illustrating trends during fiscal policy changes