Impact of Maduro's Arrest on International Relations and the Relevance of Thucydides' Theory Today

Impact of Maduro's Arrest on International Relations and the Relevance of Thucydides' Theory Today

By Angelos C. Tsigkopoulos

Founder & CEO, Diorasis Group

Publisher & MD, The Decision Maker magazine

The recent arrest of Nicolás Maduro by US forces inside Venezuela has sent shockwaves through the international community. This unprecedented move raises urgent questions about the balance between international law and power politics. It also invites reflection on whether the ancient ideas of Thucydides, the Greek historian, are playing out in modern global affairs.

So how Maduro’s arrest affects International Relations and what is the relevance of Thucydides' theory in the 21st century?

Venezuelan presidential palace with national flags

The Arrest and Its Immediate Diplomatic Fallout

The US-led operation to detain Maduro on Venezuelan soil challenges traditional norms of sovereignty and international law. Typically, arresting a sitting head of state in their own country without the host government's consent violates the principles of non-intervention and respect for national sovereignty enshrined in the United Nations Charter.

This action has triggered strong reactions:

• Venezuela’s government condemned the arrest as an act of aggression and violation of sovereignty.

• Allies of Maduro, including Russia, China, and Cuba, criticized the US for overstepping legal boundaries.

• Several Latin American countries expressed concern over escalating tensions and potential regional instability.

  
  

The arrest has deepened divisions between countries that prioritize international law and those that emphasize power and strategic interests. It also complicates diplomatic efforts to resolve Venezuela’s ongoing political and humanitarian crisis.

International Law Versus Power Politics

The arrest highlights a fundamental tension in international relations: the clash between legal norms and the exercise of power. International law aims to regulate state behaviour and protect sovereignty, but enforcement depends heavily on the willingness and ability of powerful states to comply.

In this case:

• The US justified the operation by accusing Maduro of corruption, drug trafficking, and undermining democracy.

• Critics argue the US acted unilaterally, ignoring international legal procedures such as extradition requests or UN involvement.

• Supporters claim that when legal mechanisms fail to hold authoritarian leaders accountable, power politics become necessary to uphold justice.

  
  

This situation reveals the limits of international law when confronted with realpolitik. Powerful countries can sometimes bypass legal constraints to pursue their interests, especially when they perceive a threat to regional stability or their own security.

Thucydides’ Theory in the 21st Century

Thucydides, the ancient Athenian historian, wrote about the Peloponnesian War and the dynamics between rising and established powers. His theory suggests that conflict arises when a rising power threatens the dominance of an existing power, leading to inevitable tension and war.

Applying this to Maduro’s arrest:

• The US, as an established global power, views Venezuela’s alliance with rival powers like Russia and China as a challenge to its influence in the Western Hemisphere.

• Maduro’s government represents a rising force aligned with these challengers, resisting US dominance.

• The arrest can be seen as an expression of the US attempting to maintain its position by directly confronting a rising adversary.

  
  

This interpretation suggests that the arrest is not just a legal or moral issue but part of a broader struggle for power and influence. It reflects the ongoing relevance of Thucydides’ insights into how power dynamics shape international relations.

International flags outside the United Nations headquarters

Regional and Global Implications

The arrest has several consequences for regional and global politics:

• In Latin America, it risks escalating tensions between countries supporting Maduro and those backing opposition forces.

• It may encourage other powerful states to take similar unilateral actions, weakening international legal frameworks.

• The move could deepen the geopolitical rivalry between the US and its competitors, increasing the risk of proxy conflicts.

• Humanitarian efforts in Venezuela might suffer as political tensions overshadow urgent needs.

  
  

Countries in the region now face difficult choices between aligning with the US-led approach or defending principles of sovereignty and non-intervention. The arrest could reshape alliances and influence future diplomatic negotiations.

Lessons for International Relations Today

Maduro’s arrest offers several lessons for understanding modern international relations:

• Power remains a central factor in shaping global events, often overriding legal norms.

• International law depends on collective enforcement, which is fragile when major powers act unilaterally.

• Historical theories like Thucydides’ continue to provide valuable frameworks for analyzing power struggles.

• Diplomatic solutions require balancing respect for sovereignty with the need to address abuses and threats.

  
  

Policymakers must navigate these complexities carefully to avoid further destabilization and promote a rules-based international order.

Globe focusing on Venezuela and neighboring countries