The Week Ahead, 14-18 November 2022
London, Saturday, 12 November 2022
The most significant economic data releases in the US are those related to housing, producer pricing, and retail sales. After one of the largest exchanges, FTX, filed for bankruptcy, investors will also be keeping an eye on earnings reports from major retailers and the condition of the cryptocurrency market. Inflation figures from Japan, India, the UK, and Canada will also be highlighted, as well as the UK's Autumn Budget Statement. In addition, it would be intriguing to monitor Germany's Zew Economic Sentiment, Japan's Q3 GDP growth rates, China's industrial production, retail sales, and data on fixed investments.
Investors will be on the lookout for other indicators pointing to a slowdown in inflationary pressures after a softer-than-expected US inflation announcement sparked wagers that the Federal Reserve will decrease the pace of its interest-rate hikes. The producer price index, export and import prices, and retail sales will therefore be highlighted. Retail sales are anticipated to increase by 0.9% month over month, indicating that consumers are continuing to spend despite increased prices. The PPI is projected to increase by 0.5% month over month, lowering the annual rate of inflation to 8.3% from 8.5%. Further hints on how higher rates are affecting economic activity will come from US building permits, housing starts, and existing house sales.
Additionally, a plethora of earnings reports, particularly those from major retailers like Home Depot, Walmart, and Target, will aid investors in determining the state of the largest economy in the world. Canada will make its data on inflation and housing starts public.
All eyes in the UK are on the upcoming autumn budget from new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, which is scheduled to be released on Thursday and is expected to propose significant spending cutbacks and tax rises to close the country's £50 billion budget gap. In addition to the budget statement, the British economic calendar is jam-packed with crucial figures on retail sales, unemployment, and inflation. As regulated energy prices increased despite expensive subsidies to contain the increase, annual inflation in the UK is predicted to accelerate to a new 40-year high of 10.6% in October from 10.1% in September.
EU and Eurozone
Investors in other parts of Europe will be watching the preliminary Q3 GDP figures for a number of nations, including the Netherlands, Poland, and Russia, as well as the Germany Zew Economic Sentiment Index. Additionally, the third quarter's final estimates of the Euro Zone's GDP, inflation rate, trade balance, industrial and construction output, and wholesale prices will be made public by Eurostat.
Preliminary third-quarter GDP numbers for Japan are released first in Asia, followed by October's inflation rate and trade balance. The third quarter of the Japanese economy should have seen growth of 0.3%, making it three quarters in a row. In the meanwhile, China will present data on fixed investment, retail sales, housing price rise, and industrial production for October. The RBI's upper target of 6% is anticipated to be reached in India's October inflation print, which will also coincide with the announcement of new trade statistics from the Ministry of Commerce.
Investors in other countries are awaiting the monetary authorities' decisions on interest rates in the Philippines and Indonesia. Following the RBA's November meeting, which resulted in a 25 bps rate hike that was less than anticipated, the minutes from that meeting should shed further light on the direction of monetary policy in Australia. Other significant releases include the Q3 wage report and the October labour statistics.
(Source: Tradingeconomics // Research and Report by: The Decision Maker - Finance editors.)