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Week Ahead, 05 – 09 December 2022



London, Saturday, 03 December 2022



Summary


The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan, and PPI data will be the main focus in the US.


The determination of interest rates in Australia, Canada, Brazil, and India as well as the inflation rates in China, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, the Philippines, the Netherlands, and Mexico will also be followed by investors.


Finally, German manufacturing orders as well as trade information from the US, Canada, and China ought to give some insight into the current status of the world's demand.


USA


Investors will be on the lookout for additional hints as December progresses regarding the state of the world's largest economy and the Federal Reserve's rate path.


The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is among the first-tier releases, and it is predicted that it will reveal a further slowdown in the development of activity in the services sector.


PPI data will also be highlighted, with the consensus indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures overall. Investors will also pay attention to factory orders, international trade, and consumer mood data from the University of Michigan, with a particular focus on the figure for five-year inflation forecasts.


With reports from AutoZone, Broadcom, and Costco Wholesale, earnings season will finally be over.


While the Central Bank of Brazil is expected to hold interest rates stable at 13.75% elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada is planning to raise borrowing costs by an additional 50 basis points.


The most recent figures on the trade balance and business optimism will also be released by Canada. The inflation rate, retail sales, business confidence, and the S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMIs will all be watched closely in Brazil.


Finally, data on inflation and business confidence will be released from Mexico.


Europe


The official Q3 GDP figures for Europe are anticipated to show that the region's economy grew at the slowest rate over the previous six quarters.


Additionally, October retail sales across the union are predicted to decline by the most in 10 months, and manufacturing orders in Germany are predicted to decline for the third consecutive month.


In some countries, like Russia and Turkey, the inflation rate is expected to drop. Other information to be released is the Global S&P Services PMI for important economies including Spain and Italy, the trade balance of France, and the unemployment rate in Switzerland.


UK


The Halifax home price index, the BRC retail sales monitor, and the S&P Global PMIs will all be in the limelight in the UK.


Asia


Fresh trade data for November in China is anticipated to reveal that both exports and imports fell for the second consecutive month, fuelling fears about the economy's slowdown as the government considers loosening tough lockup regulations.


The CPI and PPI readings for November will also be released by the second-largest economy in the world. Focus in Japan will be on the current account for October and the final third-quarter GDP figure.


With predictions calling for a softer 35 basis point increase following three straight 50 basis point increases, the RBI is anticipated to announce a fifth consecutive rate hike in India.


The Philippines will also reveal its unemployment rate for October and data on inflation for November.


Australia


The RBA is anticipated to raise the cash rate in Australia for a third time in a row at its meeting in December.


Investors also await October's trade balance as well as third-quarter GDP growth data, which is expected to show a fourth consecutive quarter of stable expansion.


(Report by: The Decision Maker – Finance editors)




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