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- Stocks Higher Following Monday’s Selloff; Oil Rally Builds
Tuesday, 5 October 2021 - U.S. Dow Jones: +0.9% S&P: +1.1% Nasdaq: 1.3% While supply-and-demand pushed energy prices to record highs, U.S. stocks ended up on Tuesday after Monday’s sell-off. A typical and in a way expected seasonal volatility, while September and October are the months during which selloffs are often observed, keep the stock market in a shake state. Investors have several concerns, namely: Inflation Covid-19’s continued effect on the economy Future Fed’s tightening monetary policy U.S. government possible default on its debt Supply-chain complications Surging commodity prices Technology stocks climb following Monday’s sharp losses Facebook: +2.1% to $332.96 Microsoft: +2% to $288.76 Amazon: +1% to $3,221.00 Apple: +1.4% to $141.11 As a general rule, Tech stocks’ performance is highly correlated to bond yields. The rise in bond yields has been the driver behind the selloff in tech stocks. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, is the benchmark reading to where inflation is headed, hence investors’ scepticism on the Fed’s assessment that high inflation was temporary. On Tuesday, it rose to 1.528% from 1.481% on Monday. In the meantime, energy prices surge: West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark rose + 1.7% to $78.93 a barrel, ending at its highest level since October 31, 2014. Natural-gas prices took off on concerns about a shortfall in stockpiles heading into winter. U.S. gas futures rose 9.5% to $6.31 per million British thermal units, the highest settlement price since 2008. Europe European stocks closed higher Tuesday to bounce back from losses suffered during the previous day, while US indices extended their gains. The STOXX Europe 600, which includes around 90% of the market capitalization of the European market in 17 countries, was up 5.26 points, or 1.17%, to close at 456.03. London's FTSE 100 rose 66 points, or 0.94%, to 7,077, while Germany's DAX 30 index added almost 158 points, or 1.05%, to 15,194. The French CAC 40 increased 98 points, or 1.52%, to 6,576. Spain's IBEX 35 rose 135 points, or 1.54%, to 8,927. Italy's FTSE MIB was the best performer of the day, soaring 495, or 1.95%, to 25,956 points. The rise came despite Eurozone services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 56.4 in September, reaching its lowest level since April, according to London-based global data company IHS Markit. The expectations index also fell to 8.0 in October, from 9.0 in September, to its lowest level since May 2020. It marked its fifth monthly decline in a row. Bitcoin After climbing above the critical threshold of $50,000 late Monday, Bitcoin was at $55,055 -- a 3% increase. (Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)
- Facebook slumps, Rising Treasury Yields send Big Tech Down, Nasdaq Ends steeply lower
Monday, 4 October 2021 - Dow Jones: -0.9% S&P 500: -1.3% Nasdaq: -2.1% Investors turned their back to Big Tech and other growth stocks amid rising Treasury Yields and while they are also sceptical about the possibility of a government debt default, Wall street ended steeply down. Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet each end lower more than 2%, joined by Facebook that, after its app, Messenger and Instagram were down due to a major outage earlier at 5pm U.K. time. Lack of a debt ceiling fix, sends U.S. Treasury yields higher. Biden says cannot guarantee government will not breach debt limit of $28.4 trillion. The key vote of the Republicans to raise the limit, is needed, two weeks before a default. (Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)
- BREAKING: Major outage: Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram down
A major outage brings Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram down. Monday, 4 October 2021 - Just before 5pm UK time, the three interconnected with the same infrastructure, apps, as well as Facebook Messenger and Workplace, which belongs to the same group of apps, stopped working completely. The way this fault was expressed on these apps, was different; Instagram and WhatsApp continued to work however they would not show new content nor any messages sent or received during the fault. We are monitoring this and shall update you accordingly. (Research and edit by: The Decision Maker)
- Dow Jones falls more than 500 points, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January, Nasdaq down
Thursday, 30 September 2021 – Last day of the month at Wall Street. September was hit by supply chain and inflation, with Dow Jones and Nasdaq suffering their worst month so far in 2021. Stocks drop on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities. The S&P 500 slumped Thursday to snap a seven-month win streak as progress by lawmakers to avoid a government shutdown failed to stoke investor appetite to buy the dip. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% The Dow Jones fell 1.6%, or 547 points The Nasdaq was down 0.44%. In the case of the S&P the index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January. Main reasons for this performance is, scepticism about: Fiscal and monetary policy Inflation Regulations in China The ongoing pandemic Still though, the S&P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close. Cyclical stocks, down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability. A short-term appropriations bill that would allow the government running through December 3rd, was passed by the Senate and House of Representatives on Thursday. Economic data shows a third-weekly rise in jobless claims. Fears of a slowing recovery in the job market. Jobless claims rose to 362,000, up by 11,000, contradicting economists’ expectations for a fall to 330,000, in the week ended September 25. On the broader market, investor sentiment is still challenged as tech lost its intraday gains. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Facebook, and Alphabet, the so-called Fab 5, which make up for about 25% of the S&P 500, were lower. (Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)
- Dow, S&P 500 end moderately high, Nasdaq continues decline
Wednesday, 29 September 2021 - A potential government shutdown and continuous concerns about recovery cause US stocks losing an upward momentum. Nasdaq down. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% Dow Jones up 0.3%, or 90 points Nasdaq was down 0.2% Gainers Consumer staples and utilities Sempra Energy, Tyson Foods, Conagra Brands and Nextera Energy drove the market up. While word on Wall Street suggests that higher rates are still far from causing damage to equities, the 10-year Treasury trades above 1.5%. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) stated on the case: "Without any change to the P/E, the 10-year UST yield would need to rise above 2.3% for relative equity valuations to rank above the long-term average. Tech sector continues to struggle, while Energy stocks were flat and oil prices lost balance on data that shows weekly U.S. crude supplies surprisingly rose. According to the Energy Information Administration, crude stockpiles rose by 4.58 million barrels in the week to September 24 beating the forecasts for a drop of 2.2 million. President Biden will be called to sign avoiding a government shutdown on Friday, as a vote on a funding bill will be taken by Senators on the Capitol Hill on either Wednesday or Friday, which, before reaching President’s Biden office, will be passed on to the House of Representatives. Pending home sales advanced 8.1% from a month earlier in August, rebounding from two months of declines. (Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)
- Wall Street Ends Sharply Lower on Tuesday, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq down
Tuesday, 28 September 2021 - Wall Street saw the red arrow marking its Tuesday business, with all major indexes ending lower as a spike in Treasury yields dragged tech stocks down. S&P: down 2% Dow Jones Industrial Average: down 2% or 596 points Nasdaq: down 2.8% Investors’ concern about the prospect of the FED raising interest rates sooner that generally expected in order to control inflation sent the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield up 1.5%, its highest level since June, while the 5-year rate rose above 1% the highest since February 2020 In a rising rate and inflationary environment, where current earnings are more important than future ones, growth sector was less attractive to investors, dragging Tech lower. Apple, Facebook, Google-parent Alphabet, Amazon.com and Microsoft all ended more than 2% lower, while chip stocks pushed the tech sector further down, with ASML, Applied Materials and Teradyne the biggest decliners. Some green was seen in the Energy sector. Consumer confidence fell due to delta variant, with consumer confidence index down to 109.3 from 115.2, despite economists’ estimates for a reading of 115.0 (Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)
- Stocks Finish Mixed, Energy Rallies, Nasdaq Composite Drops
Monday, 27 September 2021 - Cyclical stocks end higher while stocks of technology slip, leaving major U.S. indexes in a mixed performance. Dow Jones: +0.2% or -71.37 points, to 3,4869 S&P 500: -0.3% or -12.37 points, to 4443.11 Nasdaq Composite: -0.5% or -77.73 points, to 14969.97 Treasury yields and bank stocks up. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly topped 1.5% for the first time since June. Why the rise in yields? Several factors: Optimism about the economic outlook The potential for tighter monetary policy Solid consumer demand Gainers Cyclical stocks, including: Manufacturers Mining firms Casinos and retailers Energy Losers Tech and other growth stocks. Some investors note that cyclical stocks rally despite rising interests rate, is a proof that the economy is on a path to sustainable growth. European Markets European stock markets, except Stoxx 600, closed with gains on Monday after preliminary official results of Germany's general elections were revealed. Social Democratic Party (SPD) won the most parliamentary seats in national elections, while Angela Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU bloc came in second, according to preliminary results. Germans voted Sunday in a very tight election to elect a new parliament and determine who will succeed Merkel as the country’s next chancellor. The STOXX Europe 600, which includes around 90% of the market capitalization of the European market in 17 countries, was marginally down by 0.87, or 0.19%, closing at 462.4. London's FTSE 100 gained 12 points, or 0.17%, to 7,063, while Germany's DAX 30 added 42 points, or 0.27%, to 15,574. France's CAC 40 was up 12.5 points, or 0.19%, to end the day at 6,651 points. Italy's Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB 30 climbed 163.4 points, or 0.63%, to close at 26,132. Spain's IBEX 35 was the best performer of the day after soaring 1.46%, or 130 points, to 9,003. Asian Markets In Asia, major benchmarks were mixed Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up less than 0.1%. (Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)
- Global Markets Weekly roundup, 20 - 24 September
U.S. Market Dow Jones Friday’s Close: 34,798.00 Week’s Change: 213.12 % Change YTD: 13.69 S&P 500 Friday’s Close: 4,455.48 Week’s Change: 22.49 % Change YTD: 18.62% Nasdaq Composite Friday’s Close: 15,047.70 Week’s Change: 3.75 % Change YTD: 16.75% Stocks recover from sell-off An early sell-off was defeated by the major benchmarks ending the week in a flat to humbly higher manner. On Monday, the S&P 500 saw its biggest daily drop since 12 May, while briefly dipping below its 100-day moving average. Yields of long-term bonds were up sharply during the week, helping financial stocks. Energy stocks Energy stocks also led the way, within S&P 500, while utilities fell back. Major factors that affected the gloomy week start The possibility of a default of Evergrande, China’s second-largest property developer, which was seen as a threat for a global financial “contagion”. Concerns that such an event, would have similar effects with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, were recorded. Stocks rebounded on Wednesday. Stocks The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 1% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% The MSCI World index rose 0.6% Tapering on the way but jobs data a game changer Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell stated in a Press Conference, after the two-day policy meeting on Wednesday: “Participants generally view, so long as the recovery remains on track, a gradual tapering process that concludes around the middle of next year is likely to be appropriate”, signalling that, tapering of their bond-buying programme is not far away. This move would reduce some pressure on longer-term interest rates. As job data is always considered an important benchmark for adopting a monetary policy, Fed Chair further noted that, he would be monitoring the labour market before any actions, although he did not need to see the “knockout” report for September. Individual policymakers’ survey, forecasting the future of official short-term interest rates, was also released by the Fed, which showed a small increase in their median rate expectations. A number of investors interpreted as humbly hawkish signal. Europe Optimism about a continuing economic expansion sent markets higher, gains were however restrained due to worries about Chinese property developer, Evergrande. Pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index: +0.31% Germany XETRA DAX Index: +0.27% France CAC 40 Index: +1.04% Italy FTSE MIB Index: +1.01% United Kingdom FTSE 100 Index: +1.26% Growth in eurozone economic activity slowed noticeably in September from July’s 15-year high, with Eurozone business activity losing steam. Japan Losses for Japan Japan’s stock markets were closed on Monday for Respect for the Aged Day and on Thursday for Autumnal Equinox Day. Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed at 30,248.81, modestly lower for the week. JPY/USD: 110 10-years Japanese government bond: 0.055% (Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)
- U.S. stocks rally - S&P 500 Jumps 1.5%, Dow Jones Up, 1.7%
Thursday, 23 September 2021 US stocks demonstrated a solid performance on Thursday, amid Federal Reserve’s intention to start tapering in November and hopes that the Evergrande debt crisis could be restrained. The S&P 500 heads for its biggest two-day gain since May, jumping as much as 2.5%. Dow Jones up 1.7%, while yields surged globally on Bank of England’s intentions to move closer to interest rates raise. The 10-years gilt yield topped 0.90% the best performance since May, while Treasury yields led by the 30-year, surged more than 12 basis points, the biggest increase in September Markets summarised Stocks The S&P 500 rose 1.5% as of 2:34 p.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7% The MSCI World index rose 1.2% Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 1.40% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to -0.26% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 11 basis points to 0.91% Currencies The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against a basket of rivals, was down 0.4%. The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1745 The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.3735 The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 110.20 per dollar Commodities West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $73.30 a barrel Gold futures fell 1.6% to $1,750.50 an ounce Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin steadied around $44,000 Other markets Oil futures pushed higher, with the U.S. benchmark up 1.4% to $73.22 a barrel. Gold futures dropped 1.8% to around $1,747 an ounce. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index reopened after a one-day holiday to a 1.1% gain, while China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.6% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was closed for a holiday. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.9%, while the FTSE 100 index gave up 0.1%. Emerging-market stocks climbed for a third day. Turkey’s lira slumped to record low against the dollar after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. Friday focus Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discuss pandemic recovery. (Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)
- Federal Reserve’s Statements on bond-buying programme, sends Wall Street higher
Wednesday, 22 September 2021 With the Federal Reserve’s signal that tapering of their bond-buying programme is not far away and as concerns about China Evergrande Group’s debt woes eased, the S&P 500 rose 1%, Dow Jones Up 1.1% and Nasdaq climbed 1%, on Wednesday. In a Press Conference, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell stated: “Participants generally view, so long as the recovery remains on track, a gradual tapering process that concludes around the middle of next year is likely to be appropriate”. Meanwhile the tech sector was dragged lower by Facebook. The social media giant declined 4%, following its warning that Apple ad-tracking would hurt growth. Markets summarised Stocks The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 1% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% The MSCI World index rose 0.6% Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 1.30% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.32% Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.80% Currencies The dollar index rose 0.094% The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1694 The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3620 The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 109.79 per dollar Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin last rose 6.93% to $43,409.48 following three straight days of declines. Commodities West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.1% to $71.97 a barrel Gold futures fell 0.6% to $1,767.60 an ounce The week ahead Thursday: Bank of England rate decision Friday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discuss pandemic recovery
- Bank of England keeps rate at 0.1% but Warns of Slower Growth and Higher Inflation
A unanimous decision to maintain the key rate at 0.1% was taken by the Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday. It seems though that the debate about the end of quantitative-easing program is at its peak, given that opposition to its asset buying has grown to two members, while in a similar meeting in August, this opposition was limited to just one person. The last quarter of the year, BoE estimates, will see a peak of inflation at 4% noting that, “material rise in spot and forward wholesale gas prices will have an impact on the consumer-price index from April next year, when regulated prices will have to be adjusted” What can make economic growth see the red arrows of decline? Higher household energy prices Rise of unemployment as the leave-on-absence program, during which the government paid part of employees’ wages during the Covid-19 pandemic, comes to an end soon and is expected to put pressure to wage growth. The BoE stated: “Key questions include how the economy will adjust to the closure of the furlough scheme at the end of September; the extent, impact and duration of any change in unemployment”. Fiscal policies, which will be tighter the current year and the next one, with a blend of social spending cuts and higher taxes adding an extra burden on economic growth. In a further statement, the Bank noted: “The economic developments since the August meeting, appear to have strengthened” and added, “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period was likely to be necessary to be consistent with meeting the inflation target sustainably in the medium term.” Key conclusion for investors The tightening of monetary policy will highly depend on the job market behaviour in the coming months, when the government will end its furlough programme. Naturally, the primary asset classes across the board (equities, bonds, real estate, cash and currencies) are expected to be affected in the coming months. (Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)
- PR - The Decision Maker covers the #1 Investment Management event at the Grimaldi Forum in Monaco!
Press Release FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE London, 22 September 2021 – The Decision Maker announced today a unique media partnership with Fund Forum International, organisers of the number 1 Investment Management event at the Grimaldi Forum in Monaco, 20-22 October 2021. As the global economy strives to recover from the fangs of the Covid-19 pandemic, most industries are expected to experience massive expansions due to increased investments, while Global Assets under Management (AuM) is expected to hit about $147 trillion by 2025. Assets and wealth management firms have also seized more opportunities to fill the ever-growing gap in infrastructure development from governments. They can now refurbish roads, airports, hospitals, and even develop 5G and renewable energy. As a result, this infrastructure fund from AuM is expected to double by 2025. As more investors also have their expectations in asset managers to make ESG issues the core of their investment strategy, The Decision Maker travels to Monaco between 20-22 October 2021 to get the views of key decision makers of the Investment Management sector. Mr. Angelos Tsigkopoulos, Publisher and Managing Director of The Decision Maker, stated: "We are delighted to support the number 1 Investment Management event, which gathers the most significant players of the industry, globally. We always aim to keep our decision makers audience up-to-date and present them with views of their peers, facilitating their investment strategies”. Sarah Armstrong, Head of IM|Power, stated: “We’re looking forward to the opportunity to partner with the The Decision Maker as we prepare to welcome back the investment management industry to face-to-face events. We’re always looking to reach new audiences and deliver the latest market intelligence and best-possible networking opportunities.” The Decision Maker is an international business magazine produced in London, United Kingdom, quarterly. The publication is available for its subscribers in digital and print formats, while copies are distributed at selected industry events, globally. The Decision Maker has chosen to develop its logo a few years ago, in order to highlight diversity in leadership. While in the wider audience's mind, the decision maker is normally a white male, The Decision Maker communicates to its global audience that a decision maker can be of any gender and ethnic background. Decision makers of industries who influence the global socioeconomic and political status quo, are the core readers, while the sectors covered include, Banking & Finance, Maritime, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Real Estate, Energy, Technology, International Relations and Lifestyle. FundForum Interntational is part of IM|Power, a platform of events for the global investment management industry, powering the future of financial wellbeing and sustainability through world-class content and networking opportunities. Join 1,000+ senior wealth and investment management professionals in Monaco this October or choose to take part online. Contact: The Decision Maker PR Team E: info@thedecisionmaker.co T: +44 (0) 20 3371 1800 A: Berkeley Suite 35 Berkeley Square Mayfair, W1J 5BF London, U.K. ###




