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The Week Ahead, 16-20 October 2023


London, Saturday, 14 October 2023


Summary


The start of the earnings season in the US, which will feature big names like Tesla, Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Netflix, will be a major emphasis. Investors will also be monitoring Fed speeches and data on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, building permits, and existing house sales. Internationally, the UK, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, and Malaysia will all have their inflation rates keenly watched. China's retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment, unemployment rate, and house price index will all draw attention in the third quarter GDP growth rate. Lastly, retail sales and the unemployment rate will be released by the United Kingdom, and Germany will share the ZEW Economic Sentiment


USA


Investors will be keenly following numerous Federal Reserve governors' important statements in the coming week in order to gauge the possible direction of monetary policy in the months to come. Concurrently, the third-quarter earnings season has begun in earnest, with much anticipation for reports from big names in the industry, such as Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Tesla, AT&T, Blackstone, Philip Morris International, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Intuitive Surgical, and SLB; the list goes on. Now for some economic data: retail sales are predicted to have increased by 0.2% in September of last year, a modest deceleration from the 0.6% gain in August. Notable is the industrial production, which is predicted to expand by 0.1% instead of the 0.4% seen in the prior period. The housing industry will also be closely examined, with a focus on building permits, housing starts, and current home sales. There will be more information to come, such as corporate inventories, total capital flows, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, the NAHB Housing Market Index, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. In other parts of the United States, retail trade figures, housing starts, housing prices, and September inflation data are all being released by Canada and Brazil, respectively.


UK


The UK's economic calendar is jam-packed with significant information, such as the Gfk consumer confidence survey, public sector net borrowing, and critical figures on retail sales, unemployment, and inflation. September's UK consumer pricing data is anticipated to reveal annual inflation to have eased to 6.5%, the lowest level since February 2022.


Europe/Eurozone


October is expected to mark a six-month high for the Zew Economic Sentiment Index in Germany. Additionally, revised inflation data for Italy and the Eurozone will be made public. There will be more economic statistics to come, such as the current account, construction output, producer and wholesale prices in Germany, business optimism in France, and Switzerland's international trade.


Asia


China's third-quarter GDP numbers, which are anticipated to show a significant slowdown in growth as markets awaited information on the effects of Beijing's economic support, will be the main event of a busy week of data releases. Along with the publication of September's industrial production, retail sales, home prices, and jobless rate, the second-biggest economy in the world will also see the PBoC set new lending prime rates. All eyes are on September's trade balances and inflation rate in Japan, as traders search for new cues on a possible pivot signal from the BoJ. In other news, the monetary authorities of Indonesia and South Korea will select their new policy rates, and Malaysia will release its September PMI and third-quarter GDP. Investors are currently awaiting the minutes of the RBA's most recent meeting to gain insight into the central bank's assessment on inflation threats.


(Written and edited by, The Decision Maker - Global News team)





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