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The Week Ahead


London, Monday, 30 May 2022



Summary


In the United States, the labour report will take centre stage, followed by the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI. Investors will also be paying particular attention to Q1 GDP growth reports from Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Brazil, and India, as well as inflation figures from a number of European countries, including Germany and France. Additionally, remarks by numerous Fed officials, as well as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, should provide some insight into monetary policy.


U.S.A


All eyes will be on the jobs report in the United States, with the US economy expected to create a solid 310K payrolls in May, while the unemployment rate is expected to continue at 3.6 percent for the third month in a row, the lowest since February of 2020.

Wages are predicted to rise 0.4 percent, up from 0.3 percent in April, but the annual rate is expected to dip to 5.2 percent from 5.5 percent, indicating a slowing of inflationary pressures. Several Fed officials will speak about monetary policy.


The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, the final S&P Global PMIs, the Chicago PMI, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, Challenger job cuts, factory orders, the S&P/Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, and the Conference Board consumer confidence index are all important releases.

Meanwhile, Salesforce, Kirkland's, Ambarella, HP, and GameStop are all set to release quarterly results. According to Factset, 97 percent of S&P 500 businesses have reported actual results so far, with 77 percent reporting a positive EPS surprise and 73 percent reporting a revenue beat.


The markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.


The Bank of Canada is projected to boost the benchmark rate by 50 basis points, for the third time in a row.


Q1 GDP growth data for Canada and Brazil, unemployment rates for Mexico and Brazil, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs for Canada, Brazil, and Mexico will all be in the limelight.


Europe


Key inflation statistics for the Eurozone, including those for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, will be released elsewhere in Europe.


In May, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone is forecast to rise to a new all-time high of 7.7 percent, up from 7.4 percent in April. In addition, unemployed data from the Eurozone, as well as Germany, Spain, and Italy, will be released, as will first-quarter GDP updates from France, Italy, Switzerland, and Turkey. Investors will also pay attention to the Euro Area business survey, retail sales, and producer prices; the German balance of trade, retail sales, and import prices; and the Euro Area business survey, retail sales, and producer prices.


Consumer prices, domestic and international commerce, and the KOF economic barometer in Switzerland; and consumer and producer prices in Turkey. In addition, the Eurozone, Germany, and France will report final S&P Global PMI estimates, while several other nations, including as Spain and Italy, will give flash numbers.


United Kingdom


Final PMI estimates in the United Kingdom are expected to indicate a dramatic slowdown in business activity growth in May, owing to rising inflationary pressures and increased geopolitical concern. National property prices, the BRC retail sales monitor, and the Bank of England's monetary indicators are among the other data to keep an eye on.


Australia


After a strong 3.4 percent expansion in Q4 2021, when the economy recovered from the delta-induced dip, Australia's first-quarter GDP growth is expected to fall to 0.7 percent. Investors will also be looking at data on foreign trade and retail sales.


Asia


The week will be busy in Asia with manufacturing PMI data, with China taking centre stage, as goods makers are expected to report yet another month of decline due to the continued rigorous lockdown in Shanghai and other locations. South Korea and India will also provide important PMI data. Finally, inflation figures for May will be released by Indonesia and South Korea, which are expected to show rising global inflationary pressures.


(Written and edited by: The Decision Maker)